Home Insights Macro views Trump 2.0: Impact of tariffs on growth and inflation

The new Trump administration’s opening salvo in the trade war represents a significant shock to growth that could potentially plunge Mexico and Canada into a deep recession while exacerbating the malaise in China. If tariffs are implemented, U.S. growth would likely to be negatively impacted, and inflation could accelerate in the near-term. The greatest market risk likely lies in policy unpredictability, making diversification essential for managing portfolio risk and seizing investment opportunities.

President Donald Trump’s opening salvo to the trade war included the introduction of a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada, and a 10% tariff on China. Although a 30-day delay on tariffs for Mexico and Canada was announced, uncertainty on the future timing, scope, and duration of these tariffs remains high.

Assuming all the announced tariffs eventually advance, the estimated negative growth hit to both Mexico and Canada could range from 7% to 10% of GDP—large enough to potentially throw both into a deep recession. China could see a direct GDP drag near 0.4%—while smaller, it likely exacerbates the ongoing property market-induced downturn.

Notably, U.S. growth is also likely to be impacted, by an estimated 1.2%. Such a growth shock will likely put pressure on policy measures such as tax cuts and deregulation to help cushion downside risks. Meanwhile, tariffs could result in a near-term increase in inflation, potentially pushing headline inflation back toward 4%.

President Trump’s unilateral control over trade policy ensures elevated market volatility for the foreseeable future. Furthermore, his willingness to use tariffs to attempt to achieve non-economic goals challenges the assumption that he would walk back from some of his most severe policy proposals.

For investors, the greatest market risk likely lies in policy unpredictability. Given this environment, diversification is essential to manage portfolio risk and capture opportunities as companies, countries and markets adjust.

For more on how trade tensions may impact markets and portfolios, read The opening salvo in Trump trade war two.

Macro views
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