Home Insights Equities Market volatility: Could earnings growth revive the rally?

After a strong rally, markets have turned volatile, with year-to-date declines raising questions about what’s next. For gains to continue, earnings growth must take over—a transition that has historically extended market cycles. While inflation and policy uncertainty risks remain, improving earnings breadth across sectors and industries and potential tailwinds from monetary and fiscal policy could provide support.

Return contribution from P/E & earnings
1965–present

Return contribution from P/E & earnings from 1965–present in graph form
Source: Bloomberg, Principal Asset Management. Data as of March 17, 2025.

After an impressive rally since late 2022, increased concern about the economic outlook and uncertainty around policy shifts have recently seen the market retrace about 10% of its gains. Yet, whether the rally can reassert itself will largely depend on earnings growth taking the baton from valuation expansion as the key driver of market performance.

Historically, shorter market cycles tend to last about 29 months, with gains averaging 55%. By contrast, in longer bull-market cycles since 1965, both valuation expansion and earnings growth drive market momentum, thereby extending the equity rallies to 46 months and 107% growth, on average.

Today, earnings breadth is improving, with growth expanding beyond technology into more cyclical industries. Consensus expectations that project 10.2% earnings growth in 2025 also suggest a revival in bullish sentiment. Additional market tailwinds are on the horizon, including a more accommodative Federal Reserve, fiscal stimulus, and structural drivers like technological innovation.

As always, risks persist. Inflationary pressures, tightening financial conditions, or renewed macro uncertainty could compress valuations before earnings growth fully materializes. Past cycles have demonstrated that strong earnings alone do not guarantee higher equity returns if inflation and interest rates remain headwinds.

Historical trends suggest that when earnings take the baton from valuations, markets can continue to climb. Investors should closely watch earnings revisions and policy developments as key indicators for the path ahead.

For a deeper dive into market cycles and what may drive returns going forward, read Is there hope for the market?

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