Municipal bonds are poised to benefit from the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle, making 4Q 2024 an opportune time to extend duration and lock in attractive tax-advantaged income. Despite recent technical headwinds and underperformance, fundamentals remain strong, with credit upgrades significantly outpacing downgrades. As election-related pressures ease and bond yields fall, high-quality municipals offer compelling value for tax-sensitive investors.

As the fourth quarter gets underway, municipal bonds stand out as a compelling option for investors seeking credit exposure. With the Federal Reserve beginning its rate-cutting cycle and valuations at attractive levels, this period may present an ideal opportunity to extend duration in municipal bonds—both for the remainder of the year and potentially throughout the rate cycle.

The fundamentals in the municipal market remain strong, with credit upgrades outpacing downgrades by 3.5 times so far this year. However, technical factors have been less supportive. Municipal supply has surged nearly 40% year-to-date, leading to further cheapening as a result of substantial net supply, election-related uncertainty, and other market dynamics. These technical pressures have contributed to underperformance, with 10- and 30-year municipal versus Treasury yield ratios reaching their widest levels of 2024.

Despite these challenges, municipals offer significant opportunities. Historically, municipal bonds have outperformed 3-month T-bills following the start of rate cuts, whether or not the economy enters a recession. For tax-sensitive investors, the value of the municipal tax exemption is currently the highest since 2008, providing further incentive to explore this asset class. With the technical headwinds expected to ease post-election, and bond yields typically declining during easing cycles, 4Q 2024 may be the optimal time to extend duration in high-quality municipals and lock in attractive, tax-advantaged income.

Read more about additional themes impacting fixed income markets and portfolios in the quarter ahead in our 4Q Fixed Income Perspectives.

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