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Trump’s decisive victory: Market reactions and economic implications

Market response

November 6, 2024 | 4 min read
Seema Shah
Chief Global Strategist
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Despite initial concerns that the outcome of the Presidential election might remain uncertain for days or even weeks, a decisive Republican performance has made it clear that Donald Trump has been elected the 47th President of the United States. He secured both the popular vote and the Electoral College by a substantial margin, surpassing his support levels from 2016 and 2020. Given the clarity of his victory, it appears unlikely that Kamala Harris will contest the result, which should help to prevent a prolonged period of political uncertainty.

Congressional control

While the Presidential election result is clear, control of Congress remains uncertain. The Senate has shifted to Republican control, but the outcome for the House of Representatives is still pending. Currently, the House leans toward a narrow Republican majority, though it may take several days, and perhaps longer, before the final composition of Congress is confirmed.

Market reaction

The market reaction has, so far, stuck closely in line with the Trump trade playbook.

  • U.S. equities have risen as investors anticipate lower taxes. Europe, China and Latin America equities have trended lower as concerns around tariff hikes weigh on sentiment.
  • Expectations for tax cuts and spending increases have brought the bond vigilantes out in force, driving U.S. bond yields sharply higher.
  • Concerns that higher tariffs will drive up inflation has prompted markets to price out some Fed rate cuts next year.
  • Currency markets have also seen large moves, with the U.S. dollar rising sharply against most trading partners.
  • Bitcoin has thus far been a major winner, hitting record highs.

While the short-term market implications of the Trump victory are resounding, the longer-term impact is still unclear and will remain so at least until the final make-up of Congress is known.

If Congress is divided, Trump’s ability to advance his agenda on taxes, spending, and regulation would likely face significant challenges. If, however, the final vote counting delivers a Republican sweep in Congress, his campaign proposals will have a smoother ride. Importantly, even in a Republican Congressional majority, the narrow margins faced in both the House and Senate imply that sweeping fiscal and regulatory changes may still be limited, and that some of today’s market gains could be temporary.

Tariffs, however, do not require Congressional approval. An increase in tariffs on imports from China should be expected, while a universal tariff on all imports is also possible. As such, international markets and currencies may remain under some pressure as investors digest the impact.

The inflationary effects of tariffs may also influence the Federal Reserve’s policy. While the Fed is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points tomorrow and again in December, further rate cuts in 2025 may be constrained if inflation pressures rise.

For investors, once the final vote tallying is complete, the path forward will require close monitoring of both policy and inflation trends as the new administration’s agenda takes shape.

Macro views
Equities
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