The Fed and markets agree that rate cuts are coming, but less so on exactly when. Rather than being time dependent, the Fed will remain data dependent, likely requiring the U.S. economy to show distinct signs of slowing before they can feel confident inflation is on a sustainable path to target, before turning to rate cuts. Yet, although the market’s current estimate of policy easing beginning in March is likely a little optimistic, the more important message remains clear: a path to rate cuts is emerging.
Federal Reserve policy rates path
Fed funds rate and projections
Source: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Principal Asset Management. Data as of December 15, 2023.
The Federal Reserve’s latest dot plot revealed the committee expects 75 basis points of cuts next year, aligning with the market’s view that the direction of travel for rates is downward. However, market pricing continues to be more aggressive than the Fed’s, anticipating double the amount of easing, with the first rate cut coming as early as March.
Looking at the past four hiking cycles, the period between reaching peak Fed funds to lowering rates has ranged from 5 months to 15 months. Rather than being time dependent, the decision to pivot is data dependent. Typically, a weakening labor market, below-trend economic growth, and on-target inflation have served as prerequisites for a rate cut.
Currently, the U.S. economy remains robust. Recent retail sales are suggestive of a resilient consumer, while jobless claims have flattened out. While inflation is trending toward target, if growth remains above trend, price pressures threaten to re-emerge.
As such, while markets are expecting the first rate cut to come as early as March, such expectations may be overly optimistic. It is more likely that clear evidence of an economic slowdown will take longer to emerge, possibly around mid-year. Nonetheless, the message for investors is clear: there is a path to monetary easing in 2024. Uncertainty around the exact timing of cuts will add volatility, but it will not change the trend.
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About the author
Chief Global Strategist
Seema Shah
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No Solicitation
Nothing contained in this website shall constitute an offer or solicitation, in relation to units in the Funds or generally, in any jurisdiction or in any circumstances in which such offer or solicitation is unlawful or not authorised.
In particular, shares issued by the Company, and units in the Funds, have not been and will not be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933 as amended or the securities laws of any state or political subdivision of the United States and may not, except in a transaction which does not violate US securities laws, be directly offered or sold in the United States or to any US Person. The Company will not be registered under the United States Investment Company Act of 1940 as amended.
This website is reserved exclusively for non-US persons and should not be accessed by any person in the United States.
No Investment Advice
The information in this website contains general information only on investment matters and should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such nor should it be construed as specific investment advice, an opinion or recommendation. The general information it contains does not take account of any investor’s investment objectives, particular needs or financial situation, nor should it be relied upon in any way as a forecast or guarantee of future events regarding a particular investment or the markets in general. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and should not be relied upon as a significant basis for an investment decision.
You should also inform yourself as to (a) the possible tax consequences, (b) the legal requirements and (c) any foreign exchange restrictions or exchange control requirements which you might encounter under the laws of the countries of your citizenship, residence or domicile and which might be relevant to any investment, including the subscription, holding, transfer or disposal of units in the Funds
Delegation of Investment Management to Affiliates
Products upon which composite results contained in this material, if any, are based may not themselves be available in the United Kingdom and certain other jurisdictions; however, the underlying investment management capability can be made available to institutional investors subject to all applicable local regulations and restrictions. In connection with its management of client portfolios, PGIE may delegate management authority to affiliates that are not authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. In any such case, the client may not benefit from all protections afforded by rules and regulations enacted under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000.
Disclaimer
The information on this website is given by Principal Global Investors in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as at their date. However, Principal Global Investors makes no representation or warranty of any kind for the accuracy or completeness of the information and it is under no obligation to update or correct any errors in the information after the date of publication. This website also contains videos where the comments were valid on the date the video was recorded. Markets move continuously and you should only rely on current information for any investment decisions.
Subject to applicable law, Principal Global Investors and its affiliates and their respective directors, employees and associates do not accept any responsibility arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information and do not accept any liability for any loss or damage, however caused, as a result of any person relying on any information on the website or being unable to access the website.
The Internet is not a totally reliable and secure medium of communication. Principal Global Investors accepts no liability for the security or confidentiality of information transmitted in this way and any such transmission of information shall be at your own risk.
The entire content of this website is subject to copyright with all rights reserved. You may not copy, reproduce, distribute or modify the content of this website without the prior written permission of Principal Global Investors.
No instructions for investment purposes will be accepted directly from this website or by e-mail.
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"Principal Financial Group is a global organization that operates in many different jurisdictions worldwide. Principal Financial Group’s diversified group of companies and affiliates provide comprehensive asset management solutions for institutional investors, investment funds and individuals in key markets around the world. Principal Financial Group has investment offices in the United States, [Mexico, South America, Europe, the Middle East, and throughout Asia]. Where appropriate, Principal Financial Group entities are registered with appropriate regulatory authorities in the jurisdictions in which they are required to be registered to carry on their respective business activities.
All products or services provided to you by any Principal Financial Group company shall only be available in the jurisdiction(s) within which the company providing the product or service is authorized to operate. The relevant Principal Financial Group company reserves the right to make the final determination on whether or not you are eligible for any particular product or service. If you choose to enter a website outside your country of residence, you are advised that it may not be legal in that jurisdiction for you to access or use the facilities available on that Site and the legal requirements of that jurisdiction may prohibit you from dealing or otherwise transacting in that jurisdiction.
Principal Financial Group makes no representation that the content of the site is appropriate for use in all locations, or that the transactions, securities, products, instruments or services discussed at this site are available or appropriate for sale or use in all jurisdictions or countries, or by all persons and entities. Nothing on this website shall be considered a solicitation for the offering of any investment product or service to any person in any jurisdiction where such solicitation or offering may not lawfully be made.
Principal Global Investors, LLC (“Principal Global Investors”) is pleased to provide this website to you subject to your acknowledgement and acceptance of the following Terms of Use. If you disagree with these Terms of Use, you must not use this website.
License to Use Website
Unless otherwise stated, Principal Global Investors and/or its licensors own the intellectual property rights in the website and material on the website. Subject to the license below, all these intellectual property rights are reserved.
You may view, download for caching purposes only, and print content from the website for your own personal use, subject to the restrictions set out below and elsewhere in these Terms of Use.
You may not (a) republish material from this website (including republication on another website); (b) sell, rent or sub-license material from this website; (c) show any material from this website in public; (d) reproduce, duplicate, copy or otherwise exploit material on this website for a commercial purpose; (e) edit or otherwise modify any material on this website; or (f) redistribute material from this website.
No Investment Advice
This website is for informational purposes only. Nothing contained on this website constitutes tax, accounting, regulatory, legal, insurance or investment advice. This website contains general information only on investment matters and should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. The information should not be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice. The investments and strategies discussed in the website may not be suitable for all investors. Decisions based on information contained on this website are the sole responsibility of the visitor.
No Solicitation or Offer
Neither the information, nor any opinion, contained on this website constitutes a solicitation or offer by Principal Global Investors or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments, nor shall any such security be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase, or sale would be unlawful under the relevant laws of such jurisdiction. All persons and entities accessing this website do so on their own initiative and are responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations.
No Guarantee of Investment Results
Principal Global Investors and its affiliates do not guarantee any investment results and there can be no assurance that the strategies employed will improve investment performance, and make no guarantee that a client's investment objectives will be achieved and no warranties or representations, expressed or implied, are made concerning the benefits of these strategies discussed herein. All investments involve risk and may lose value. The value of your investment can go down depending upon market conditions. Fixed income investments are subject to risk including interest rate, credit, market and issuer risk. Currency exchange rates may cause the value of an investment to go up or down. Alternative strategies involve higher risks than traditional investments, may not be tax efficient, and have higher fees than traditional investments; they may also be highly leveraged and engage in speculative investment techniques, which can magnify the potential for investment loss or gain.
No Guarantee of Timeliness
This website may contain videos where the comments were valid on the date the video was recorded. Markets move continuously and you should only rely on current information for any investment decisions. The information and materials contained on this website, and the terms, conditions, and descriptions that appear, are subject to change. All content on this website is presented only as of the date published or indicated, and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. In addition, you are responsible for setting the cache settings on your browser to ensure you are receiving the most recent data.
No Warranties
The information on this website has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however Principal Global Investors and its affiliates do not independently verify or guarantee its accuracy or validity. The information and services provided on this website are provided ""AS IS"" and without warranties of any kind, either expressed or implied. To the fullest extent permissible pursuant to applicable law, Principal Global Investors disclaims all warranties, including, but not limited to, any warranty of non-infringement of third-party rights and any implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose. Principal Global Investors does not warrant, either expressly or impliedly, the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained on this website and does not warrant that the functions contained in this website will be uninterrupted or error-free, that defects will be corrected, or that the website will be free of viruses or other harmful components. Principal Global Investors expressly disclaims all liability for errors and omissions in the materials on this website and for the use or interpretation by others of information contained on the website. Subject to any contrary provisions of applicable law, no company in the Principal Financial Group nor any of their employees or directors gives any warranty of reliability or accuracy nor accepts any responsibility arising in any other way (including by reason of negligence) for errors or omissions on this website.
Severability
If any provision of these Terms of Use is deemed unlawful, void, or for any reason unenforceable, then that provision will be deemed severable from these Terms of Use and will not affect the validity and enforceability of the remaining provisions.
No Waiver
No waiver by Principal Global Investors of any right under or term or provision of these Terms of Use will be deemed a waiver of any other right, term, or provision of these Terms of Use at the time of such waiver or a waiver of that or any other right, term, or provision of these Terms of Use at any other time.
Indemnity
In exchange for using this website, you agree to indemnify and hold Principal Global Investors, its officers, directors, employees, affiliates, agents, licensors and suppliers harmless against any and all claims, losses, liability, costs and expenses (including but not limited to attorneys' fees) arising from your use of this website, from your violation of these terms and conditions or from any decisions that the visitor makes based on such information.
Breaches of these Terms of Use
Without prejudice to Principal Global Investors’ other rights under these Terms of Use, if you breach these Terms of Use in any way, Principal Global Investors may take such action as Principal Global Investors deems appropriate to deal with the breach, including suspending your access to the website, prohibiting you from accessing the website, blocking computers using your IP address from accessing the website, contacting your internet service provider to request that they block your access to the website and bringing court proceedings against you.
Variation
Principal Global Investors may revise these Terms of Use from time to time. Revised Terms of Use will apply to the use of this website from the date of their publication on this website. Please check this page regularly to ensure you are familiar with the current version.
Entire Agreement
These Terms of Use, together with the Principal Financial Group Disclosures, Terms of Use, Privacy and Security links provided below, constitute the entire agreement between you and Principal Global Investors in relation to your use of this website, and supersede all previous agreements in respect of your use of this website.
If you have questions, please email us.
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"Principal Global Investors, LLC, the issuer of this website, is a branch registered in the Dubai International Financial Centre and is authorized by the Dubai Financial Services Authority as a representative office.
This website contains general information only on investment matters and nothing in this website is intended to constitute or form part of any offer or inducement to issue or sell, or any solicitation of any offer to subscribe for or purchase, any securities or investment products in the UAE (including the Dubai International Financial Centre) and accordingly should not be construed as such. Information in this website is not directed at you if we are prohibited by any law of any jurisdiction from making the information on this site available to you and is not intended for any use that would be contrary to local law or regulation. Products or services mentioned on this site are subject to legal and regulatory requirements in applicable jurisdictions and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Accordingly persons are required to inform themselves of and observe any such restrictions.
The information in this website is being made available on the basis that the recipient acknowledges and understands that the entities and securities to which it may relate have not been approved, licensed by or registered with the UAE Central Bank, the Dubai Financial Services Authority or any other relevant licensing authority or governmental agency in the UAE or elsewhere in the Middle East.
The information in the following website should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation for the purchase or sale of any security. The value of investments and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Principal Global Investors, LLC and the other member firms of Principal Global Investors (collectively, the ""Firms"")* do not guarantee any investment results and there can be no assurance that the strategies employed will improve investment performance, and make no guarantee that a client's investment objectives will be achieved and no warranties or representations, expressed or implied, are made by the Firms concerning the benefits of these strategies discussed herein. The information in this website has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources that the Firms believe to be reliable; however, the Firms do not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information and are not responsible for any errors or omissions. This website also contains videos where the comments were valid on the date the video was recorded. Markets move continuously and you should only rely on current information for any investment decisions.
This website contains general information only on investment matters and should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. The information it contains does not take account of any investor's investment objectives, particular needs or financial situation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and should not be relied upon as a significant basis for an investment decision. You should consider whether an investment fits your investment objectives, particular needs and financial situation before making any investment decision.
Nothing in this website should be construed as investment, tax, legal or other advice.
The content of this website has not been approved by or filed with the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Services Authority.
Access to this website is only permitted for ""sophisticated institutional investors/professional clients"". If you are not a ""sophisticated institutional investor/professional client"", you may not access this website and you should select the ""Decline"" link below.
By selecting the ""Accept"" button below, and entering this website, you agree to these terms and confirm and represent that you are a "" sophisticated institutional investor/professional client""."