Home Insights Macro views 2024 recap: Resilient despite risks

Markets defied challenges in 2024, delivering strong gains across equities and bonds, supported by investor optimism and resilient economic fundamentals. Entering 2025, a mix of policy clarity and elevated equity valuations suggests a cautious but optimistic outlook for U.S. growth. Key risks—including trade policy and the Federal Reserve’s evolving stance on rates—underscore the importance of navigating potential volatility in a complex global landscape.

Asset class returns by year
Total returns for varying asset classes by calendar year

Total returns for varying asset classes by calendar year in colored grid form
Source: Clearnomics, Standard & Poor’s, Bloomberg, LSEG, Principal Asset Management. Data as of December 26, 2024. Asset classes are represented by the S&P 500, MSCI EM, MSCI EAFE, Russell 2000, iShares Core U.S. Bond Aggregate and Bloomberg Commodity Index. The Balanced Portfolio is a hypothetical 60/40 portfolio consisting of 40% U.S. Large Cap, 5% Small Cap, 10% International Developed Equities, 5% Emerging Market Equities, 35% U.S. Bonds, and 5% Commodities.

Despite challenges ranging from political uncertainty to persistent inflation and a cooling labor market, markets delivered a strong performance in 2024. As of December 26, the S&P 500 has gained 28.3% on the year including dividends, while the Dow is up 17.1% and the Nasdaq has surged 34.3%. Bond markets also finished in positive territory, with the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index rising 1.1%, even amid elevated interest rates and a volatile year for yields. The 10-year Treasury yield currently sits at 4.6%.

As we look to 2025, the U.S. election has provided some policy clarity, but economic and market dynamics suggest a complex landscape ahead:

  • Fed policy: The Federal Reserve appears poised for cautious rate cuts, trying to narrowly balance lingering inflationary pressures against a softening labor market.
  • Growth outlook: U.S. economic growth is expected to stay above trend, bolstered by consumer spending and robust corporate balance sheets.
  • Household pressures: Lower-income households face challenges from high rates, low savings, and elevated consumer debt.
  • Labor market: While employment appears solid overall, certain sectors are experiencing headwinds.
  • Valuations: Equity valuations remain elevated, driven by the strong rally of recent years.
  • Global divergence: U.S. resilience contrasts with headwinds in Europe and China, where growth remains under pressure.

Key risks include uncertainties around trade policies and the Fed’s assessment of the neutral rate, which could weigh on markets. With expectations running high, navigating potential volatility will be critical in 2025.

Macro views
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