Home Insights Fixed income Fixed income: Selective opportunity amidst uncertainty

As the Federal Reserve cautiously moves through its rate-cutting cycle, fixed income markets are experiencing significant changes due to shifting policy dynamics. The introduction of broad tariffs and rising geopolitical uncertainties have created new challenges, increasing volatility and complicating inflation and growth forecasts. However, elevated yields and strong credit fundamentals still present compelling opportunities in fixed income. Despite risks, sectors like investment grade and high yield remain robust, emphasizing the need for careful issuer selection. Valuation adjustments are enhancing potential returns, making active management vital.

As the Federal Reserve cautiously navigates its rate-cutting cycle, fixed income markets are undergoing substantial transformations driven by evolving policy dynamics. The introduction of broad-based tariffs and increasing geopolitical uncertainties have introduced significant macroeconomic headwinds, heightening volatility and complicating inflation and growth forecasts. Despite this challenging backdrop, the prevailing elevated yields, strong credit fundamentals, and improving valuations continue to present compelling opportunities in fixed income.

The recent tariff measures have added a stagflationary tilt to the economic outlook, resulting in a steepening of the U.S. yield curve and renewed focus on the Fed’s policy signaling. Additionally, global central banks have diverged in their responses due to fragmented economic conditions and varying fiscal policy strategies, further complicating the landscape.

Within this environment, spread widening and rising all-in yields are enhancing forward return potential across credit sectors. While traditional safe havens like Treasurys face pressure, emerging markets, securitized assets, and private credit, in particular, present attractive risk-adjusted opportunities for long-term investors.

Periods of heightened volatility often cast light on the important diversification benefits of fixed income within a balanced portfolio and the turbulence witnessed in early April was no exception. With uncertainty likely to remain elevated over the quarter ahead, fixed income investors that emphasize quality, selectivity, and maintain the flexibility to pivot as the policy path evolves are well positioned for the period ahead.

Read more about additional themes impacting fixed income markets and portfolios in the quarter ahead in our 2Q Fixed Income Perspectives.

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